The Padel Brief

FinalWomenOctober 31, 2026

Brea / Triay v Ustero / Sanchez

D. BreaG. Triay
Winner
366
A. UsteroA. Sanchez
611
Center Court Bnk01:56

Pre-match odds

Upset
Brea / Triay

31%

Avg Elo 2009

Ustero / Sanchez

69%

Avg Elo 2079

Elo gap 70

Brea / Triay won with a 31% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Brea / TriayUstero / Sanchez

55%
Points won
45%
58%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
42%
56%
1st-serve points won
52%
67%
2nd-serve points won
25%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
43%
7
Longest run of points
6
11
Service games
12
0
Double faults
1
Stats by set

Set 1

42%
Points won
58%
50%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
50%
50%
1st-serve points won
69%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
31%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
25%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
5

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
57%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
43%
52%
1st-serve points won
40%
80%
2nd-serve points won
29%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
71%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
50%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
3
0
Double faults
1

Set 3

66%
Points won
34%
71%
Points won on serve
38%
62%
Points won on return
29%
69%
1st-serve points won
40%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Brea / Triay first, Ustero / Sanchez second.

125 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–1

  1. 0–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–30
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–ABP
    11. 40–40
    Hold

Set 36–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 0–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Brea / Triay serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.