The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 2, 2026

Abarzua / Rousselet v De La Mare / Nicholas

F. AbarzuaH. Rousselet
Winner
736
C. De La MareV. Nicholas
664
Grand Stand 102:42

Pre-match odds

Upset
Abarzua / Rousselet

32%

Avg Elo 1379

De La Mare / Nicholas

68%

Avg Elo 1446

Elo gap 67

Abarzua / Rousselet won with a 32% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Abarzua / RousseletDe La Mare / Nicholas

49%
Points won
51%
53%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
47%
53%
1st-serve points won
55%
50%
2nd-serve points won
57%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
38%
Break points converted
38%
5
Longest run of points
9
15
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

50%
Points won
50%
56%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
44%
51%
1st-serve points won
51%
69%
2nd-serve points won
70%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
30%
Points won returning 2nd serve
31%
25%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 2

40%
Points won
60%
46%
Points won on serve
66%
34%
Points won on return
54%
55%
1st-serve points won
67%
17%
2nd-serve points won
50%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
83%
50%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
9
4
Service games
5

Set 3

52%
Points won
48%
53%
Points won on serve
49%
51%
Points won on return
47%
55%
1st-serve points won
51%
40%
2nd-serve points won
0%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
50%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Abarzua / Rousselet first, De La Mare / Nicholas second.

182 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–6

Breaks 2–2

  1. 0–1

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Break
  8. 4–4

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Abarzua / Rousselet take it 8–6

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 2–2
    5. 3–2
    6. 4–2
    7. 4–3
    8. 4–4
    9. 4–5
    10. 5–5
    11. 6–5
    12. 6–6
    13. 7–6
    Tiebreak

Set 23–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–15
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold

Set 36–4

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–40
    4. 40–A
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Abarzua / Rousselet serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    De La Mare / Nicholas serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.