The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 2, 2026

Triay / Ortega v Schmitz / Ermann

G. TriayM. Ortega
Winner
66
A. SchmitzC. Ermann
00
Court 500:33

Pre-match odds

Triay / Ortega

99%

Avg Elo 1967

Schmitz / Ermann

1%

Avg Elo 1418

Elo gap 549

Triay / Ortega delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Triay / OrtegaSchmitz / Ermann

83%
Points won
17%
89%
Points won on serve
23%
77%
Points won on return
11%
92%
1st-serve points won
26%
67%
2nd-serve points won
0%
74%
Points won returning 1st serve
8%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
67%
Break points converted
0%
12
Longest run of points
1
6
Service games
6
Stats by set

Set 1

80%
Points won
20%
92%
Points won on serve
29%
71%
Points won on return
8%
100%
1st-serve points won
33%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
67%
Points won returning 1st serve
0%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
1
3
Service games
3

Set 2

86%
Points won
14%
86%
Points won on serve
14%
86%
Points won on return
14%
83%
1st-serve points won
17%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
83%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
12
Longest run of points
1
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Triay / Ortega first, Schmitz / Ermann second.

40 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Schmitz / Ermann serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Triay / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Schmitz / Ermann serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Triay / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Schmitz / Ermann serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 6–0

    Triay / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Schmitz / Ermann serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Triay / Ortega serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Schmitz / Ermann serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Triay / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Schmitz / Ermann serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 6–0

    Triay / Ortega serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.