The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 2, 2026

Margherita / Sussarello v Tawfik / Fathy

C. MargheritaG. Sussarello
Winner
66
M. TawfikR. Fathy
23
Court 600:53

Pre-match odds

Margherita / Sussarello

38%

Avg Elo 1509

Tawfik / Fathy

62%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 41

Margherita / Sussarello won as slight underdogs (38%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Margherita / SussarelloTawfik / Fathy

61%
Points won
39%
72%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
28%
71%
1st-serve points won
53%
75%
2nd-serve points won
42%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
58%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
50%
Break points converted
50%
10
Longest run of points
4
9
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

63%
Points won
37%
75%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
25%
74%
1st-serve points won
48%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
69%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
31%
69%
1st-serve points won
60%
67%
2nd-serve points won
33%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
40%
Break points converted
100%
10
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Margherita / Sussarello first, Tawfik / Fathy second.

72 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0BP
    Break

Set 26–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–0
    6. 40–15
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Tawfik / Fathy serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Margherita / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.