The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 2, 2026

Nogueira / Batlle v Dubins / Rodriguez

A. NogueiraA. Batlle
Winner
66
B. DubinsC. Rodriguez
44
Court 701:38

Pre-match odds

Upset
Nogueira / Batlle

28%

Avg Elo 1443

Dubins / Rodriguez

72%

Avg Elo 1526

Elo gap 84

Nogueira / Batlle won with a 28% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Nogueira / BatlleDubins / Rodriguez

52%
Points won
48%
56%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
44%
55%
1st-serve points won
52%
60%
2nd-serve points won
50%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
50%
Break points converted
33%
4
Longest run of points
5
10
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

53%
Points won
47%
53%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
47%
58%
1st-serve points won
47%
25%
2nd-serve points won
50%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
38%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

51%
Points won
49%
58%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
42%
53%
1st-serve points won
57%
83%
2nd-serve points won
50%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
100%
Break points converted
20%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Nogueira / Batlle first, Dubins / Rodriguez second.

104 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 3–4

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break

Set 26–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Dubins / Rodriguez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.