The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 2, 2026

Groenveld / Betz v Alejandra / Lucia

L. GroenveldM. Betz
Winner
66
M. AlejandraM. Lucia
11
Court 1300:42

Pre-match odds

Upset
Groenveld / Betz

28%

Avg Elo 1467

Alejandra / Lucia

72%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 83

Groenveld / Betz won with a 28% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Groenveld / BetzAlejandra / Lucia

67%
Points won
33%
71%
Points won on serve
38%
62%
Points won on return
29%
71%
1st-serve points won
36%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
64%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
71%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
5
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

63%
Points won
37%
64%
Points won on serve
37%
63%
Points won on return
36%
62%
1st-serve points won
33%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
67%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
3
Service games
4

Set 2

71%
Points won
29%
80%
Points won on serve
40%
60%
Points won on return
20%
80%
1st-serve points won
40%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Groenveld / Betz first, Alejandra / Lucia second.

54 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 26–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Alejandra / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Groenveld / Betz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.