The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 2, 2026

Bergeron / Joris v Meijer / Nolten

J. BergeronM. Joris
Winner
167
B. MeijerM. Nolten
635
Court 1301:41

Pre-match odds

Bergeron / Joris

53%

Avg Elo 1498

Meijer / Nolten

47%

Avg Elo 1486

Elo gap 12

Bergeron / Joris won a near coin flip (53%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Bergeron / JorisMeijer / Nolten

52%
Points won
48%
68%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
32%
67%
1st-serve points won
64%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
60%
7
Longest run of points
6
14
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

34%
Points won
66%
42%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
58%
42%
1st-serve points won
73%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
58%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
4

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
80%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
20%
79%
1st-serve points won
59%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
41%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Set 3

55%
Points won
45%
73%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
27%
72%
1st-serve points won
61%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
33%
7
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Bergeron / Joris first, Meijer / Nolten second.

119 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 11–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 15–40
    6. 30–40
    7. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 1–6

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 30–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 37–5

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Meijer / Nolten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Bergeron / Joris serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.