The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 3, 2026

Santos / Ribeiro v Perez / Alejandra

C. SantosP. Ribeiro
Winner
66
J. PerezM. Alejandra
22
Grand Stand 100:54

Pre-match odds

Upset
Santos / Ribeiro

14%

Avg Elo 1393

Perez / Alejandra

86%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 157

Santos / Ribeiro won with a 14% chance — about 1 in 7.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Santos / RibeiroPerez / Alejandra

62%
Points won
38%
77%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
23%
82%
1st-serve points won
49%
40%
2nd-serve points won
44%
51%
Points won returning 1st serve
18%
56%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
67%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

66%
Points won
34%
89%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
11%
89%
1st-serve points won
48%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
11%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
69%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
31%
76%
1st-serve points won
50%
40%
2nd-serve points won
40%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
67%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Santos / Ribeiro first, Perez / Alejandra second.

71 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 25–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Perez / Alejandra serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 5–2

    Santos / Ribeiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.