The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 3, 2026

Salinas / Negrete v Nawaf / Nawaf

D. SalinasM. Negrete
33
M. NawafR. Nawaf
Winner
66
Grand Stand 100:52

Pre-match odds

Upset
Salinas / Negrete

71%

Avg Elo 1494

Nawaf / Nawaf

29%

Avg Elo 1416

Elo gap 78

Nawaf / Nawaf won with a 29% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Salinas / NegreteNawaf / Nawaf

46%
Points won
54%
60%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
40%
64%
1st-serve points won
68%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
100%
Break points converted
80%
4
Longest run of points
8
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

46%
Points won
54%
48%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
52%
52%
1st-serve points won
62%
25%
2nd-serve points won
0%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
100%
Break points converted
75%
4
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Set 2

46%
Points won
54%
78%
Points won on serve
75%
25%
Points won on return
22%
81%
1st-serve points won
73%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
19%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
8
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Salinas / Negrete first, Nawaf / Nawaf second.

67 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 1–0

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break

Set 23–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Salinas / Negrete serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 3–6

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.