The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 3, 2026

Stupaczuk / Arce v Van Opstal / Prins

F. StupaczukM. Arce
Winner
66
B. Van OpstalJ. Prins
13
Grand Stand 200:56

Pre-match odds

Stupaczuk / Arce

99%

Avg Elo 1874

Van Opstal / Prins

1%

Avg Elo 1496

Elo gap 378

Stupaczuk / Arce delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Stupaczuk / ArceVan Opstal / Prins

63%
Points won
37%
76%
Points won on serve
46%
54%
Points won on return
24%
76%
1st-serve points won
44%
67%
2nd-serve points won
57%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
56%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
4
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

64%
Points won
36%
57%
Points won on serve
32%
68%
Points won on return
43%
57%
1st-serve points won
33%
0%
2nd-serve points won
25%
67%
Points won returning 1st serve
43%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
57%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
4
3
Service games
4

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
87%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
13%
90%
1st-serve points won
54%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
10%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Stupaczuk / Arce first, Van Opstal / Prins second.

64 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. The feed had gaps during this match, so some games are missing.

Set 16–1

Breaks 4–1

  1. 1–0

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–0

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15

    1 game not captured

    —
  3. 3–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 4–1

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 4–2

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 5–2

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 5–3

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 6–3

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.