The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 3, 2026

Brea / Fassio v Van Mol / Sermant

D. BreaM. Fassio
Winner
66
M. Van MolN. Sermant
00
Court 500:35

Pre-match odds

Brea / Fassio

99%

Avg Elo 1879

Van Mol / Sermant

1%

Avg Elo 1461

Elo gap 418

Brea / Fassio delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Brea / FassioVan Mol / Sermant

81%
Points won
19%
89%
Points won on serve
25%
75%
Points won on return
11%
88%
1st-serve points won
26%
100%
2nd-serve points won
22%
74%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
78%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
0%
22
Longest run of points
2
6
Service games
6
2
Aces
0
Stats by set

Set 1

86%
Points won
14%
92%
Points won on serve
19%
81%
Points won on return
8%
92%
1st-serve points won
20%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
80%
Points won returning 1st serve
8%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
15
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3
2
Aces
0

Set 2

76%
Points won
24%
86%
Points won on serve
30%
70%
Points won on return
14%
85%
1st-serve points won
33%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
67%
Points won returning 1st serve
15%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Brea / Fassio first, Van Mol / Sermant second.

50 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Brea / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Van Mol / Sermant serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Brea / Fassio serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Van Mol / Sermant serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Brea / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Van Mol / Sermant serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Brea / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Van Mol / Sermant serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Brea / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Van Mol / Sermant serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Brea / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Van Mol / Sermant serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.