The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 3, 2026

Touly / Pothier v Araneda / Ahumada

C. ToulyL. Pothier
Winner
66
C. AranedaK. Ahumada
01
Court 600:44

Pre-match odds

Upset
Touly / Pothier

33%

Avg Elo 1459

Araneda / Ahumada

67%

Avg Elo 1522

Elo gap 63

Touly / Pothier won with a 33% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Touly / PothierAraneda / Ahumada

67%
Points won
33%
76%
Points won on serve
39%
61%
Points won on return
24%
82%
1st-serve points won
37%
40%
2nd-serve points won
60%
63%
Points won returning 1st serve
18%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
55%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
7
1
Aces
0
Stats by set

Set 1

75%
Points won
25%
86%
Points won on serve
33%
67%
Points won on return
14%
92%
1st-serve points won
29%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
71%
Points won returning 1st serve
8%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
60%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3
1
Aces
0

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
68%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
32%
75%
1st-serve points won
42%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
50%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Touly / Pothier first, Araneda / Ahumada second.

57 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 6–0

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 25–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0BP
    6. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Touly / Pothier serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 5–1

    Araneda / Ahumada serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.