The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 3, 2026

Araujo / Graca v Boehnke / Merten

P. AraujoP. Graca
Winner
66
C. BoehnkeN. Merten
20
Court 600:35

Pre-match odds

Araujo / Graca

59%

Avg Elo 1589

Boehnke / Merten

41%

Avg Elo 1558

Elo gap 31

Araujo / Graca delivered as 59% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Araujo / GracaBoehnke / Merten

69%
Points won
31%
88%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
12%
83%
1st-serve points won
41%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
59%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
45%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
7
0
Aces
1
Stats by set

Set 1

65%
Points won
35%
89%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
11%
85%
1st-serve points won
50%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
15%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
40%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4
0
Aces
1

Set 2

74%
Points won
26%
86%
Points won on serve
33%
67%
Points won on return
14%
82%
1st-serve points won
32%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
68%
Points won returning 1st serve
18%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
1
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Araujo / Graca first, Boehnke / Merten second.

43 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 30–15
    2. 40–15BP
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 40–30BP
    3. 40–40
    Break
  6. 6–0

    Araujo / Graca serving

      Hold

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.