The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 3, 2026

Margherita / Marchetti v Sabatini / Rompies

C. MargheritaG. Marchetti
Winner
66
F. SabatiniJ. Rompies
22
Court 700:44

Pre-match odds

Margherita / Marchetti

78%

Avg Elo 1538

Sabatini / Rompies

22%

Avg Elo 1427

Elo gap 111

Margherita / Marchetti delivered as 78% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Margherita / MarchettiSabatini / Rompies

62%
Points won
38%
77%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
23%
77%
1st-serve points won
54%
78%
2nd-serve points won
50%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
22%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

66%
Points won
34%
89%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
11%
87%
1st-serve points won
53%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
13%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
69%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
31%
70%
1st-serve points won
55%
67%
2nd-serve points won
40%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
50%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Margherita / Marchetti first, Sabatini / Rompies second.

59 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Sabatini / Rompies serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Margherita / Marchetti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.