The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 3, 2026

Correa / Bergamini v Humphreys / Di Francesco

D. CorreaL. Bergamini
Winner
666
C. HumphreysV. Di Francesco
173
Court 1301:44

Pre-match odds

Correa / Bergamini

74%

Avg Elo 1608

Humphreys / Di Francesco

26%

Avg Elo 1518

Elo gap 90

Correa / Bergamini delivered as 74% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Correa / BergaminiHumphreys / Di Francesco

54%
Points won
46%
69%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
31%
70%
1st-serve points won
61%
50%
2nd-serve points won
57%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
25%
7
Longest run of points
7
15
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

71%
Points won
29%
84%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
16%
88%
1st-serve points won
40%
67%
2nd-serve points won
50%
60%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
67%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
3

Set 2

45%
Points won
55%
62%
Points won on serve
73%
27%
Points won on return
38%
62%
1st-serve points won
74%
50%
2nd-serve points won
71%
26%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
29%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 3

56%
Points won
44%
68%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
32%
70%
1st-serve points won
57%
0%
2nd-serve points won
33%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
40%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Correa / Bergamini first, Humphreys / Di Francesco second.

136 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published. The feed had gaps during this match, so some games are missing.

Set 16–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold

Set 26–7

Breaks 0–0

  1. 0–1

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 15–15
    7. 30–15
    8. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  13. 6–7

    Humphreys / Di Francesco take it 6–2

    1. 0–1
    2. 0–0
    3. 1–1
    4. 1–2
    5. 2–2
    6. 2–3
    7. 2–4
    8. 2–5
    Tiebreak

Set 36–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–A
    11. 40–40
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–2

    Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

      1 game not captured

      —
    1. 5–3

      Humphreys / Di Francesco serving

      1. 0–15
      2. 0–30
      3. 0–40
      4. 15–40
      5. 30–40
      6. 40–40
      7. A–40BP
      8. 40–40
      9. 40–A
      10. 40–40
      Break
    2. 6–3

      Correa / Bergamini serving

      1. 15–0
      2. 30–0
      3. 40–0
      Hold

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.