The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Nawaf / Nawaf v Fitzon / Lindmeyer

M. NawafR. Nawaf
Winner
266
B. FitzonJ. Lindmeyer
634
Grand Stand 101:41

Pre-match odds

Upset
Nawaf / Nawaf

32%

Avg Elo 1416

Fitzon / Lindmeyer

68%

Avg Elo 1480

Elo gap 64

Nawaf / Nawaf won with a 32% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Nawaf / NawafFitzon / Lindmeyer

52%
Points won
48%
65%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
35%
66%
1st-serve points won
60%
64%
2nd-serve points won
43%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
57%
Points won returning 2nd serve
36%
30%
Break points converted
60%
8
Longest run of points
6
14
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

40%
Points won
60%
50%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
50%
45%
1st-serve points won
73%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
3
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 2

60%
Points won
40%
78%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
22%
80%
1st-serve points won
55%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
17%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4

Set 3

55%
Points won
45%
67%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
33%
70%
1st-serve points won
56%
57%
2nd-serve points won
33%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
43%
50%
Break points converted
100%
8
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Nawaf / Nawaf first, Fitzon / Lindmeyer second.

127 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–0BP
    7. 40–15BP
    8. 40–30BP
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–A
    11. 40–40
    12. A–40BP
    13. 40–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold

Set 36–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 0–30
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Fitzon / Lindmeyer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Nawaf / Nawaf serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.