The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 4, 2026

Jensen / Brea v Soubrie / Merah

C. JensenD. Brea
Winner
66
C. SoubrieS. Merah
00
Grand Stand 200:42

Pre-match odds

Jensen / Brea

99%

Avg Elo 1966

Soubrie / Merah

1%

Avg Elo 1429

Elo gap 537

Jensen / Brea delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Jensen / BreaSoubrie / Merah

75%
Points won
25%
83%
Points won on serve
31%
69%
Points won on return
17%
84%
1st-serve points won
24%
75%
2nd-serve points won
57%
76%
Points won returning 1st serve
16%
43%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
75%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
2
6
Service games
6
Stats by set

Set 1

77%
Points won
23%
86%
Points won on serve
29%
71%
Points won on return
14%
83%
1st-serve points won
31%
100%
2nd-serve points won
25%
69%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Set 2

74%
Points won
26%
80%
Points won on serve
32%
68%
Points won on return
20%
85%
1st-serve points won
19%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
81%
Points won returning 1st serve
15%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
60%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Jensen / Brea first, Soubrie / Merah second.

50 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Soubrie / Merah serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Soubrie / Merah serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Soubrie / Merah serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Soubrie / Merah serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Soubrie / Merah serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 0–0
    4. 30–15
    5. 40–15BP
    6. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Soubrie / Merah serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.