The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 4, 2026

Dubins / Morga v Bareiro / Cepede

B. DubinsM. Morga
Winner
66
O. BareiroV. Cepede
20
Court 600:57

Pre-match odds

Dubins / Morga

50%

Avg Elo 1518

Bareiro / Cepede

50%

Avg Elo 1518

Elo gap 1

Dubins / Morga won a near coin flip (50%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Dubins / MorgaBareiro / Cepede

63%
Points won
37%
66%
Points won on serve
40%
60%
Points won on return
34%
66%
1st-serve points won
50%
67%
2nd-serve points won
8%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
92%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
55%
Break points converted
20%
11
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
62%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
38%
65%
1st-serve points won
45%
33%
2nd-serve points won
25%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
60%
Break points converted
33%
11
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

68%
Points won
32%
72%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
28%
67%
1st-serve points won
57%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Dubins / Morga first, Bareiro / Cepede second.

71 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    12. 40–40
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 5–0

    Bareiro / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 6–0

    Dubins / Morga serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.