The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Patiniotis / Graziotti v Correa / Bergamini

A. PatiniotisG. Graziotti
Winner
66
D. CorreaL. Bergamini
43
Court 601:11

Pre-match odds

Upset
Patiniotis / Graziotti

19%

Avg Elo 1480

Correa / Bergamini

81%

Avg Elo 1608

Elo gap 128

Patiniotis / Graziotti won with a 19% chance — about 1 in 5.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Patiniotis / GraziottiCorrea / Bergamini

56%
Points won
44%
60%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
40%
64%
1st-serve points won
51%
29%
2nd-serve points won
17%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
83%
Points won returning 2nd serve
71%
71%
Break points converted
67%
7
Longest run of points
7
9
Service games
10
Stats by set

Set 1

53%
Points won
47%
61%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
39%
67%
1st-serve points won
60%
25%
2nd-serve points won
25%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
100%
Break points converted
50%
7
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
58%
Points won on serve
40%
60%
Points won on return
42%
62%
1st-serve points won
43%
33%
2nd-serve points won
0%
57%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
60%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Patiniotis / Graziotti first, Correa / Bergamini second.

88 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  10. 6–4

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Correa / Bergamini serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.