The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Cassetta / Iacovino v Cesar / Palma

M. CassettaS. Iacovino
466
J. CesarS. Palma
Winner
617
Court 601:39

Pre-match odds

Upset
Cassetta / Iacovino

75%

Avg Elo 1538

Cesar / Palma

25%

Avg Elo 1441

Elo gap 98

Cesar / Palma won with a 25% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Cassetta / IacovinoCesar / Palma

52%
Points won
48%
62%
Points won on serve
59%
41%
Points won on return
38%
63%
1st-serve points won
58%
50%
2nd-serve points won
75%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
37%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
62%
Break points converted
67%
8
Longest run of points
6
15
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

43%
Points won
57%
67%
Points won on serve
83%
17%
Points won on return
33%
67%
1st-serve points won
82%
0%
2nd-serve points won
100%
18%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Set 2

68%
Points won
32%
80%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
20%
83%
1st-serve points won
50%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
17%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
3

Set 3

50%
Points won
50%
51%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
49%
51%
1st-serve points won
48%
50%
2nd-serve points won
80%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
49%
20%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
60%
Break points converted
75%
5
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Cassetta / Iacovino first, Cesar / Palma second.

132 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold

Set 36–6

Breaks 3–3

  1. 0–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  12. 6–6

    Cassetta / Iacovino serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  13. 6–6

    Game 13

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 1–3
    5. 2–3
    6. 3–3
    7. 3–4
    8. 4–4
    9. 4–5
    10. 5–6
    11. 4–6
    12. 5–6
    13. 6–6
    14. 6–7
    Tiebreak

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.