The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Perry / Ferreira v Molina / Valdes

P. PerryS. Ferreira
42
C. MolinaJ. Valdes
Winner
66
Court 700:57

Pre-match odds

Perry / Ferreira

56%

Avg Elo 1510

Molina / Valdes

44%

Avg Elo 1490

Elo gap 20

Molina / Valdes won as slight underdogs (44%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Perry / FerreiraMolina / Valdes

40%
Points won
60%
56%
Points won on serve
72%
28%
Points won on return
44%
55%
1st-serve points won
72%
60%
2nd-serve points won
75%
28%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
100%
Break points converted
75%
7
Longest run of points
9
7
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

44%
Points won
56%
65%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
35%
65%
1st-serve points won
68%
0%
2nd-serve points won
67%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
100%
7
Longest run of points
7
3
Service games
7

Set 2

36%
Points won
64%
48%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
52%
45%
1st-serve points won
78%
60%
2nd-serve points won
100%
22%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
0%
Break points converted
67%
3
Longest run of points
9
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Perry / Ferreira first, Molina / Valdes second.

69 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 30–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–40
    Hold

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Perry / Ferreira serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.