The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Luque / Jesus v Martinez / Muñoz

A. LuqueD. Jesus
Winner
66
C. MartinezS. Muñoz
32
Court 701:02

Pre-match odds

Luque / Jesus

56%

Avg Elo 1494

Martinez / Muñoz

44%

Avg Elo 1474

Elo gap 20

Luque / Jesus delivered as 56% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Luque / JesusMartinez / Muñoz

62%
Points won
38%
71%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
29%
69%
1st-serve points won
44%
78%
2nd-serve points won
100%
56%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
22%
80%
Break points converted
33%
10
Longest run of points
4
9
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

61%
Points won
39%
67%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
33%
67%
1st-serve points won
39%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
61%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
100%
Break points converted
33%
10
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
4

Set 2

63%
Points won
37%
76%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
24%
72%
1st-serve points won
48%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
2
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Luque / Jesus first, Martinez / Muñoz second.

73 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Martinez / Muñoz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Luque / Jesus serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.