The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

De Armas / Ruiz v Arredondo / Padilla

J. De ArmasR. Ruiz
41
D. ArredondoJ. Padilla
Winner
66
Court 800:47

Pre-match odds

De Armas / Ruiz

58%

Avg Elo 1448

Arredondo / Padilla

42%

Avg Elo 1421

Elo gap 28

Arredondo / Padilla won as slight underdogs (42%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

De Armas / RuizArredondo / Padilla

40%
Points won
60%
55%
Points won on serve
77%
23%
Points won on return
45%
56%
1st-serve points won
79%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
21%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
44%
6
Longest run of points
9
9
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
72%
Points won on serve
75%
25%
Points won on return
28%
70%
1st-serve points won
81%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
19%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
100%
6
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Set 2

31%
Points won
69%
38%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
62%
40%
1st-serve points won
77%
25%
2nd-serve points won
100%
23%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
0%
Break points converted
38%
5
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read De Armas / Ruiz first, Arredondo / Padilla second.

64 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold

Set 21–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Arredondo / Padilla serving

    1. 15–30
    Hold
  7. 1–6

    De Armas / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.