The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Osses / Segura v Montoya / Barrientos

F. OssesM. Segura
373
J. MontoyaL. Barrientos
Winner
666
Court 802:08

Pre-match odds

Upset
Osses / Segura

72%

Avg Elo 1502

Montoya / Barrientos

28%

Avg Elo 1422

Elo gap 80

Montoya / Barrientos won with a 28% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Osses / SeguraMontoya / Barrientos

49%
Points won
51%
62%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
38%
60%
1st-serve points won
61%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
20%
Break points converted
31%
6
Longest run of points
6
14
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

47%
Points won
53%
52%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
48%
52%
1st-serve points won
56%
0%
2nd-serve points won
67%
44%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
25%
Break points converted
40%
4
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
74%
Points won on serve
65%
35%
Points won on return
26%
74%
1st-serve points won
65%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 3

46%
Points won
54%
59%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
41%
54%
1st-serve points won
62%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
0%
Break points converted
20%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Osses / Segura first, Montoya / Barrientos second.

170 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 13–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 0–4

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Break
  5. 1–4

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  9. 3–6

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold

Set 27–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 1–0

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 0–40BP
    7. 15–40BP
    8. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  11. 6–5

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Osses / Segura take it 7–4

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–2
    3. 2–2
    4. 3–2
    5. 3–3
    6. 4–3
    7. 5–3
    8. 6–4
    Tiebreak

Set 33–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 0–1

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Osses / Segura serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–6

    Montoya / Barrientos serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.