The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 4, 2026

Arancibia / Ahumada v Mestach / Van Mol

C. ArancibiaK. Ahumada
274
A. MestachM. Van Mol
Winner
656
Court 1301:55

Pre-match odds

Arancibia / Ahumada

45%

Avg Elo 1492

Mestach / Van Mol

55%

Avg Elo 1509

Elo gap 18

Mestach / Van Mol delivered as 55% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Arancibia / AhumadaMestach / Van Mol

46%
Points won
54%
65%
Points won on serve
74%
26%
Points won on return
35%
67%
1st-serve points won
76%
50%
2nd-serve points won
64%
24%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
36%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
60%
6
Longest run of points
7
15
Service games
15
Stats by set

Set 1

36%
Points won
64%
50%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
50%
45%
1st-serve points won
82%
75%
2nd-serve points won
67%
18%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
7
4
Service games
4

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
74%
Points won on serve
68%
32%
Points won on return
26%
78%
1st-serve points won
70%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
50%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Set 3

44%
Points won
56%
66%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
34%
69%
1st-serve points won
81%
33%
2nd-serve points won
75%
19%
Points won returning 1st serve
31%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
100%
4
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Arancibia / Ahumada first, Mestach / Van Mol second.

127 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–0
    3. 30–0
    4. 40–0
    5. 40–15
    6. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    Break
  8. 2–6

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold

Set 27–5

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 15–40BP
    6. 30–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  12. 7–5

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Break

Set 34–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Arancibia / Ahumada serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Mestach / Van Mol serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.