The Padel Brief

Group stageWomenNovember 4, 2026

Araneda / Lobo v Sermant / Vierendeels

C. AranedaM. Lobo
721
N. SermantR. Vierendeels
Winner
666
Court 1301:55

Pre-match odds

Upset
Araneda / Lobo

73%

Avg Elo 1550

Sermant / Vierendeels

27%

Avg Elo 1462

Elo gap 89

Sermant / Vierendeels won with a 27% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Araneda / LoboSermant / Vierendeels

44%
Points won
56%
56%
Points won on serve
69%
31%
Points won on return
44%
54%
1st-serve points won
68%
67%
2nd-serve points won
71%
32%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
29%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
33%
Break points converted
62%
6
Longest run of points
10
13
Service games
14
Stats by set

Set 1

52%
Points won
48%
66%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
34%
64%
1st-serve points won
65%
80%
2nd-serve points won
0%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
100%
Break points converted
50%
5
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Set 2

40%
Points won
60%
48%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
52%
48%
1st-serve points won
61%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
52%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 3

33%
Points won
67%
46%
Points won on serve
81%
19%
Points won on return
54%
45%
1st-serve points won
84%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
16%
Points won returning 1st serve
55%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
0%
Break points converted
50%
3
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Araneda / Lobo first, Sermant / Vierendeels second.

139 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 17–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Araneda / Lobo take it 6–4

    1. 0–1
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 1–3
    5. 2–3
    6. 2–4
    7. 3–4
    8. 4–4
    9. 5–4
    Tiebreak

Set 22–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break

Set 31–5

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    Break
  7. 1–5

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.