The Padel Brief

Group stageMenNovember 4, 2026

Navarro / Velickovic v Nolten / Van Betuw

E. NavarroV. Velickovic
14
J. NoltenN. Van Betuw
Winner
66
Court 1300:44

Pre-match odds

Navarro / Velickovic

64%

Avg Elo 1537

Nolten / Van Betuw

36%

Avg Elo 1487

Elo gap 50

Nolten / Van Betuw won as slight underdogs (36%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Navarro / VelickovicNolten / Van Betuw

41%
Points won
59%
59%
Points won on serve
76%
24%
Points won on return
41%
56%
1st-serve points won
73%
75%
2nd-serve points won
100%
27%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
0%
Break points converted
60%
3
Longest run of points
7
8
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

36%
Points won
64%
44%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
56%
40%
1st-serve points won
70%
67%
2nd-serve points won
100%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
60%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
0%
Break points converted
50%
2
Longest run of points
6
3
Service games
4

Set 2

45%
Points won
55%
69%
Points won on serve
80%
20%
Points won on return
31%
67%
1st-serve points won
77%
80%
2nd-serve points won
100%
23%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
0%
Break points converted
100%
3
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Navarro / Velickovic first, Nolten / Van Betuw second.

60 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 11–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 0–2

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  3. 0–3

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 0–4

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 0–5

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 30–40
    3. 40–40
    4. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 1–5

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 1–6

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold

Set 24–6

Breaks 0–1

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Navarro / Velickovic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.