The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 5, 2026

Stupaczuk / Arce v Boehnke / Merten

F. StupaczukM. Arce
Winner
66
C. BoehnkeN. Merten
30
Grand Stand 200:51

Pre-match odds

Stupaczuk / Arce

97%

Avg Elo 1874

Boehnke / Merten

3%

Avg Elo 1558

Elo gap 316

Stupaczuk / Arce delivered as 97% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Stupaczuk / ArceBoehnke / Merten

64%
Points won
36%
78%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
22%
79%
1st-serve points won
45%
67%
2nd-serve points won
33%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
33%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
7
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
74%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
26%
76%
1st-serve points won
51%
50%
2nd-serve points won
29%
49%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
71%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
20%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Set 2

72%
Points won
28%
86%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
14%
85%
1st-serve points won
35%
100%
2nd-serve points won
50%
65%
Points won returning 1st serve
15%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Stupaczuk / Arce first, Boehnke / Merten second.

74 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–15
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 40–30
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break

Set 25–0

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 30–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Stupaczuk / Arce serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 5–0

    Boehnke / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.