The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 5, 2026

Patiniotis / Graziotti v Axelsson / Släryd

A. PatiniotisG. Graziotti
Winner
266
A. AxelssonW. Släryd
624
Court 501:45

Pre-match odds

Upset
Patiniotis / Graziotti

22%

Avg Elo 1480

Axelsson / Släryd

78%

Avg Elo 1589

Elo gap 109

Patiniotis / Graziotti won with a 22% chance — about 1 in 5.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Patiniotis / GraziottiAxelsson / Släryd

52%
Points won
48%
60%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
40%
58%
1st-serve points won
55%
71%
2nd-serve points won
100%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
42%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
40%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
6
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

43%
Points won
57%
52%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
48%
46%
1st-serve points won
64%
80%
2nd-serve points won
100%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
0%
Break points converted
40%
3
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 2

57%
Points won
43%
66%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
34%
67%
1st-serve points won
55%
60%
2nd-serve points won
0%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
50%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 3

55%
Points won
45%
64%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
36%
62%
1st-serve points won
50%
75%
2nd-serve points won
100%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
25%
40%
Break points converted
33%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Patiniotis / Graziotti first, Axelsson / Släryd second.

137 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 1–0

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    10. 40–ABP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 30–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    8. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 36–4

Breaks 2–1

  1. 0–1

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Patiniotis / Graziotti serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Axelsson / Släryd serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.