The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 5, 2026

Sanz / Nieto v Fernandes / De Avila Simonato

J. SanzJ. Nieto
Winner
66
L. FernandesM. De Avila Simonato
22
Center Court00:56

Pre-match odds

Sanz / Nieto

99%

Avg Elo 1847

Fernandes / De Avila Simonato

1%

Avg Elo 1459

Elo gap 389

Sanz / Nieto delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Sanz / NietoFernandes / De Avila Simonato

63%
Points won
37%
79%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
21%
78%
1st-serve points won
45%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
44%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
3
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

62%
Points won
38%
78%
Points won on serve
49%
51%
Points won on return
22%
77%
1st-serve points won
45%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
23%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Set 2

64%
Points won
36%
80%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
20%
79%
1st-serve points won
45%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Sanz / Nieto first, Fernandes / De Avila Simonato second.

75 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 0–30
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Fernandes / De Avila Simonato serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Sanz / Nieto serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.