The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 5, 2026

Araujo / Graca v Van Opstal / Prins

P. AraujoP. Graca
Winner
66
B. Van OpstalJ. Prins
34
Court 601:09

Pre-match odds

Araujo / Graca

74%

Avg Elo 1589

Van Opstal / Prins

26%

Avg Elo 1496

Elo gap 93

Araujo / Graca delivered as 74% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Araujo / GracaVan Opstal / Prins

58%
Points won
42%
79%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
21%
81%
1st-serve points won
63%
73%
2nd-serve points won
36%
37%
Points won returning 1st serve
19%
64%
Points won returning 2nd serve
27%
25%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
6
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

63%
Points won
37%
91%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
9%
89%
1st-serve points won
61%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
39%
Points won returning 1st serve
11%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
33%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
4

Set 2

55%
Points won
45%
71%
Points won on serve
60%
40%
Points won on return
29%
74%
1st-serve points won
65%
62%
2nd-serve points won
44%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
56%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
20%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
6
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Araujo / Graca first, Van Opstal / Prins second.

96 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 40–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–30BP
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Van Opstal / Prins serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.