The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalMenNovember 5, 2026

Molina / Valdes v Navarro / Zelba

C. MolinaJ. Valdes
Winner
66
E. NavarroM. Zelba
13
Court 1300:47

Pre-match odds

Molina / Valdes

33%

Avg Elo 1490

Navarro / Zelba

67%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 60

Molina / Valdes won as slight underdogs (33%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Scores read Molina / Valdes first, Navarro / Zelba second.

67 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–40
    4. A–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    7. 40–40
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–15
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 26–3

Breaks 1–0

  1. 1–0

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 30–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.