The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 5, 2026

Ustero / Sanchez v Björk / Kjaergaard

A. UsteroA. Sanchez
Winner
66
L. BjörkS. Kjaergaard
12
Grand Stand 100:47

Pre-match odds

Ustero / Sanchez

99%

Avg Elo 2044

Björk / Kjaergaard

1%

Avg Elo 1483

Elo gap 561

Ustero / Sanchez delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Ustero / SanchezBjörk / Kjaergaard

66%
Points won
34%
72%
Points won on serve
38%
62%
Points won on return
28%
78%
1st-serve points won
38%
25%
2nd-serve points won
50%
62%
Points won returning 1st serve
22%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
67%
Break points converted
50%
10
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
8
0
Aces
1
Stats by set

Set 1

69%
Points won
31%
92%
Points won on serve
41%
59%
Points won on return
8%
92%
1st-serve points won
41%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
59%
Points won returning 1st serve
8%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
75%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
4

Set 2

64%
Points won
36%
63%
Points won on serve
35%
65%
Points won on return
37%
70%
1st-serve points won
32%
25%
2nd-serve points won
50%
68%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
75%
60%
Break points converted
50%
10
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4
0
Aces
1

Point by point

Scores read Ustero / Sanchez first, Björk / Kjaergaard second.

67 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 15–15
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    6. 30–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 26–2

Breaks 3–1

  1. 0–1

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Ustero / Sanchez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Björk / Kjaergaard serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.