The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 5, 2026

Jensen / Brea v Santos / Simas

C. JensenD. Brea
Winner
66
M. SantosS. Simas
00
Center Court00:40

Pre-match odds

Jensen / Brea

99%

Avg Elo 1966

Santos / Simas

1%

Avg Elo 1478

Elo gap 488

Jensen / Brea delivered as 99% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Jensen / BreaSantos / Simas

75%
Points won
25%
80%
Points won on serve
29%
71%
Points won on return
20%
81%
1st-serve points won
27%
67%
2nd-serve points won
40%
73%
Points won returning 1st serve
19%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
55%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
2
6
Service games
6
Stats by set

Set 1

71%
Points won
29%
80%
Points won on serve
35%
65%
Points won on return
20%
85%
1st-serve points won
28%
50%
2nd-serve points won
100%
72%
Points won returning 1st serve
15%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
50%
Break points converted
0%
4
Longest run of points
1
3
Service games
3

Set 2

80%
Points won
20%
80%
Points won on serve
20%
80%
Points won on return
20%
79%
1st-serve points won
25%
100%
2nd-serve points won
0%
75%
Points won returning 1st serve
21%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Jensen / Brea first, Santos / Simas second.

45 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Santos / Simas serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Santos / Simas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Santos / Simas serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Santos / Simas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Santos / Simas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Santos / Simas serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.