The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 5, 2026

Gibson / Rose v Morales / Fathy

A. GibsonC. Rose
Winner
66
O. MoralesR. Fathy
10
Court 600:44

Pre-match odds

Gibson / Rose

38%

Avg Elo 1507

Morales / Fathy

62%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 44

Gibson / Rose won as slight underdogs (38%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Gibson / RoseMorales / Fathy

72%
Points won
28%
79%
Points won on serve
33%
67%
Points won on return
21%
85%
1st-serve points won
28%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
72%
Points won returning 1st serve
15%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
86%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
2
6
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

70%
Points won
30%
78%
Points won on serve
36%
64%
Points won on return
22%
80%
1st-serve points won
32%
67%
2nd-serve points won
67%
68%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
75%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
4

Set 2

75%
Points won
25%
80%
Points won on serve
29%
71%
Points won on return
20%
92%
1st-serve points won
20%
33%
2nd-serve points won
43%
80%
Points won returning 1st serve
8%
57%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
100%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
2
3
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Gibson / Rose first, Morales / Fathy second.

53 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 0–1

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 26–0

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 5–0

    Gibson / Rose serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  6. 6–0

    Morales / Fathy serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.