The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 5, 2026

Jackson / Norton v El Nimr / Tawfik

L. JacksonT. Norton
275
L. El NimrM. Tawfik
Winner
667
Court 602:16

Pre-match odds

Jackson / Norton

24%

Avg Elo 1385

El Nimr / Tawfik

76%

Avg Elo 1485

Elo gap 100

El Nimr / Tawfik delivered as 76% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Jackson / NortonEl Nimr / Tawfik

46%
Points won
54%
49%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
51%
53%
1st-serve points won
55%
31%
2nd-serve points won
75%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
69%
50%
Break points converted
54%
6
Longest run of points
8
16
Service games
16
Stats by set

Set 1

38%
Points won
62%
36%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
64%
35%
1st-serve points won
58%
40%
2nd-serve points won
100%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
65%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
33%
Break points converted
50%
4
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 2

50%
Points won
50%
59%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
41%
59%
1st-serve points won
53%
60%
2nd-serve points won
83%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
17%
Points won returning 2nd serve
40%
33%
Break points converted
100%
5
Longest run of points
8
6
Service games
6

Set 3

46%
Points won
54%
45%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
55%
56%
1st-serve points won
53%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
7
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Jackson / Norton first, El Nimr / Tawfik second.

155 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 1–3

  1. 0–1

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break

Set 27–6

Breaks 1–1

  1. 0–1

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 0–0
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  12. 6–6

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  13. 7–6

    Jackson / Norton take it 10–8

    1. 1–0
    2. 1–1
    3. 1–2
    4. 1–3
    5. 1–2
    6. 1–3
    7. 2–3
    8. 2–4
    9. 2–5
    10. 3–5
    11. 4–5
    12. 4–6
    13. 5–6
    14. 6–6
    15. 7–6
    16. 7–7
    17. 8–7
    18. 8–8
    19. 9–8
    Tiebreak

Set 35–7

Breaks 2–3

  1. 0–1

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  8. 4–4

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  9. 5–4

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Jackson / Norton serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  12. 5–7

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  13. 5–7

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.