The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 5, 2026

Sermant / Vierendeels v Perez / Lucia

N. SermantR. Vierendeels
Winner
66
J. PerezM. Lucia
11
Court 800:57

Pre-match odds

Upset
Sermant / Vierendeels

27%

Avg Elo 1462

Perez / Lucia

73%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 89

Sermant / Vierendeels won with a 27% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Sermant / VierendeelsPerez / Lucia

63%
Points won
37%
67%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
33%
72%
1st-serve points won
48%
33%
2nd-serve points won
25%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
83%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
5
7
Service games
7
Stats by set

Set 1

63%
Points won
37%
70%
Points won on serve
41%
59%
Points won on return
30%
75%
1st-serve points won
50%
50%
2nd-serve points won
27%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
25%
73%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
75%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
4

Set 2

62%
Points won
38%
66%
Points won on serve
44%
56%
Points won on return
34%
70%
1st-serve points won
47%
0%
2nd-serve points won
0%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
100%
100%
Break points converted
0%
10
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
3

Point by point

Scores read Sermant / Vierendeels first, Perez / Lucia second.

76 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 0–1

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break

Set 25–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Perez / Lucia serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  7. 5–1

    Sermant / Vierendeels serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.