The Padel Brief

QuarterfinalWomenNovember 5, 2026

Gumulya / Sabrina v Ermann / Höfer

B. GumulyaF. Sabrina
Winner
67
C. ErmannD. Höfer
35
Court 1302:04

Pre-match odds

Upset
Gumulya / Sabrina

24%

Avg Elo 1426

Ermann / Höfer

76%

Avg Elo 1527

Elo gap 101

Gumulya / Sabrina won with a 24% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Gumulya / SabrinaErmann / Höfer

54%
Points won
46%
59%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
41%
65%
1st-serve points won
55%
46%
2nd-serve points won
40%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
54%
50%
Break points converted
30%
9
Longest run of points
5
11
Service games
10
1
Double faults
0
Stats by set

Set 1

57%
Points won
43%
66%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
34%
70%
1st-serve points won
50%
56%
2nd-serve points won
60%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
30%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
44%
33%
Break points converted
50%
9
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
4
1
Double faults
0

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
56%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
44%
62%
1st-serve points won
58%
41%
2nd-serve points won
20%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
80%
Points won returning 2nd serve
59%
75%
Break points converted
25%
4
Longest run of points
5
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Gumulya / Sabrina first, Ermann / Höfer second.

126 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–1

  1. 1–0

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 15–30
    2. 15–40BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    Hold

Set 27–5

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 2–2

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Ermann / Höfer serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Gumulya / Sabrina serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.