The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

Osoro / Fassio v Baldi / Sussarello

A. OsoroM. Fassio
Winner
66
C. BaldiG. Sussarello
22
Grand Stand 101:36

Pre-match odds

Osoro / Fassio

96%

Avg Elo 1798

Baldi / Sussarello

4%

Avg Elo 1516

Elo gap 282

Osoro / Fassio delivered as 96% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Osoro / FassioBaldi / Sussarello

58%
Points won
42%
60%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
40%
54%
1st-serve points won
42%
89%
2nd-serve points won
50%
58%
Points won returning 1st serve
46%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
11%
55%
Break points converted
22%
8
Longest run of points
5
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

58%
Points won
42%
46%
Points won on serve
29%
71%
Points won on return
54%
36%
1st-serve points won
26%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
74%
Points won returning 1st serve
64%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
25%
4
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
75%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
25%
74%
1st-serve points won
55%
80%
2nd-serve points won
40%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
26%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
29%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
5
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Osoro / Fassio first, Baldi / Sussarello second.

98 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 4–2

  1. 1–0

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 0–15
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40BP
    6. 15–40BP
    7. 30–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–ABP
    12. 40–40
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  3. 2–1

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 3–2

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30BP
    Break

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 0–0
    5. 15–30
    6. 0–30
    7. 15–40
    8. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Osoro / Fassio serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Baldi / Sussarello serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.