The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

Jensen / Brea v Marchetti / Dal Pozzo

C. JensenD. Brea
Winner
66
G. MarchettiG. Dal Pozzo
23
Grand Stand 101:15

Pre-match odds

Jensen / Brea

97%

Avg Elo 1966

Marchetti / Dal Pozzo

3%

Avg Elo 1661

Elo gap 305

Jensen / Brea delivered as 97% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Jensen / BreaMarchetti / Dal Pozzo

60%
Points won
40%
57%
Points won on serve
37%
63%
Points won on return
43%
60%
1st-serve points won
36%
40%
2nd-serve points won
50%
64%
Points won returning 1st serve
40%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
50%
Break points converted
75%
8
Longest run of points
7
9
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

60%
Points won
40%
59%
Points won on serve
39%
61%
Points won on return
41%
59%
1st-serve points won
38%
0%
2nd-serve points won
50%
62%
Points won returning 1st serve
41%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
43%
Break points converted
100%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

59%
Points won
41%
55%
Points won on serve
33%
67%
Points won on return
45%
62%
1st-serve points won
31%
40%
2nd-serve points won
50%
69%
Points won returning 1st serve
38%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
60%
Break points converted
67%
8
Longest run of points
7
5
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Jensen / Brea first, Marchetti / Dal Pozzo second.

83 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 30–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    12. 40–40
    13. A–40BP
    Break

Set 26–3

Breaks 3–2

  1. 0–1

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  6. 3–3

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 4–3

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Marchetti / Dal Pozzo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  9. 6–3

    Jensen / Brea serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.