The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

Nogueira / Batlle v Julia / Abarzua

A. NogueiraA. Batlle
Winner
66
A. JuliaF. Abarzua
13
Grand Stand 201:09

Pre-match odds

Nogueira / Batlle

49%

Avg Elo 1443

Julia / Abarzua

51%

Avg Elo 1446

Elo gap 4

Nogueira / Batlle won a near coin flip (49%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Nogueira / BatlleJulia / Abarzua

57%
Points won
43%
67%
Points won on serve
52%
48%
Points won on return
33%
66%
1st-serve points won
54%
69%
2nd-serve points won
47%
46%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
53%
Points won returning 2nd serve
31%
62%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
6
8
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

64%
Points won
36%
68%
Points won on serve
40%
60%
Points won on return
32%
64%
1st-serve points won
35%
80%
2nd-serve points won
50%
65%
Points won returning 1st serve
36%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
50%
Break points converted
100%
9
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
3

Set 2

52%
Points won
48%
66%
Points won on serve
61%
39%
Points won on return
34%
67%
1st-serve points won
70%
62%
2nd-serve points won
45%
30%
Points won returning 1st serve
33%
55%
Points won returning 2nd serve
38%
100%
Break points converted
0%
3
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Nogueira / Batlle first, Julia / Abarzua second.

79 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 3–1

  1. 1–0

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 4–0

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 0–15
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 26–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Nogueira / Batlle serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–15
    7. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Julia / Abarzua serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.