The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

Miranda / Bareiro v Hering / Kurz

C. MirandaO. Bareiro
03
K. HeringV. Kurz
Winner
66
Court 1300:50

Pre-match odds

Upset
Miranda / Bareiro

73%

Avg Elo 1550

Hering / Kurz

27%

Avg Elo 1466

Elo gap 85

Hering / Kurz won with a 27% chance — about 1 in 4.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Scores read Miranda / Bareiro first, Hering / Kurz second.

75 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 10–6

Breaks 0–3

  1. 0–1

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 0–3

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 0–4

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 0–5

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 0–6

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    Hold

Set 23–5

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  4. 1–3

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 40–30BP
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    Break
  8. 3–5

    Hering / Kurz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–0
    4. 0–15
    5. 0–30
    6. 15–30
    7. 30–30
    8. 30–40
    9. 30–30
    10. 40–40
    11. 40–A
    12. 40–40
    13. A–40BP
    14. 40–40
    Break
  9. 3–5

    Miranda / Bareiro serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.