The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

Alejandra / Cepede v Schmitz / Renic

M. AlejandraV. Cepede
64
A. SchmitzL. Renic
Winner
76
Court 1301:23

Pre-match odds

Upset
Alejandra / Cepede

90%

Avg Elo 1518

Schmitz / Renic

10%

Avg Elo 1331

Elo gap 187

Schmitz / Renic won with a 10% chance — about 1 in 10.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Alejandra / CepedeSchmitz / Renic

47%
Points won
53%
52%
Points won on serve
58%
42%
Points won on return
48%
52%
1st-serve points won
60%
53%
2nd-serve points won
50%
40%
Points won returning 1st serve
48%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
47%
80%
Break points converted
42%
9
Longest run of points
8
11
Service games
11
Stats by set

Set 1

46%
Points won
54%
53%
Points won on serve
62%
38%
Points won on return
47%
55%
1st-serve points won
65%
43%
2nd-serve points won
56%
35%
Points won returning 1st serve
45%
44%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
100%
Break points converted
67%
9
Longest run of points
6
6
Service games
6

Set 2

49%
Points won
51%
50%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
50%
46%
1st-serve points won
55%
58%
2nd-serve points won
43%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
54%
57%
Points won returning 2nd serve
42%
67%
Break points converted
33%
6
Longest run of points
8
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Alejandra / Cepede first, Schmitz / Renic second.

119 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–7

Breaks 2–2

  1. 1–0

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 4–1

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    Break
  10. 5–5

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  11. 5–6

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Break
  12. 6–6

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    Break
  13. 6–7

    Schmitz / Renic take it 7–4

    1. 1–0
    2. 2–0
    3. 2–1
    4. 2–2
    5. 2–3
    6. 2–4
    7. 2–5
    8. 3–5
    9. 4–5
    10. 4–6
    Tiebreak

Set 24–6

Breaks 2–3

  1. 1–0

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–A
    9. 40–40
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–ABP
    10. 40–40
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  6. 2–4

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    5. 30–40BP
    Break
  7. 2–5

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Schmitz / Renic serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Alejandra / Cepede serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.