The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

Rose / De La Mare v Marija / Ruiz

C. RoseC. De La Mare
Winner
466
A. MarijaD. Ruiz
613
Court 701:41

Pre-match odds

Rose / De La Mare

37%

Avg Elo 1503

Marija / Ruiz

63%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 47

Rose / De La Mare won as slight underdogs (37%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Rose / De La MareMarija / Ruiz

57%
Points won
43%
66%
Points won on serve
51%
49%
Points won on return
34%
66%
1st-serve points won
53%
67%
2nd-serve points won
33%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
34%
67%
Points won returning 2nd serve
33%
45%
Break points converted
40%
6
Longest run of points
4
13
Service games
13
Stats by set

Set 1

49%
Points won
51%
51%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
49%
47%
1st-serve points won
57%
80%
2nd-serve points won
40%
43%
Points won returning 1st serve
53%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
20%
33%
Break points converted
50%
6
Longest run of points
3
5
Service games
5

Set 2

68%
Points won
32%
74%
Points won on serve
41%
59%
Points won on return
26%
76%
1st-serve points won
47%
50%
2nd-serve points won
0%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
100%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
67%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
3

Set 3

61%
Points won
39%
84%
Points won on serve
53%
47%
Points won on return
16%
88%
1st-serve points won
53%
50%
2nd-serve points won
50%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
40%
Break points converted
0%
6
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Rose / De La Mare first, Marija / Ruiz second.

130 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 14–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 0–1

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  5. 2–3

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    Break
  6. 2–4

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 15–30
    6. 15–15
    7. 15–30
    8. 15–40
    9. 30–40
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  10. 4–6

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–30BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold

Set 36–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    10. 40–40
    11. A–40BP
    12. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 15–15
    7. 30–15
    8. 40–30BP
    Break
  8. 5–3

    Rose / De La Mare serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Marija / Ruiz serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.