The Padel Brief

SemifinalWomenNovember 6, 2026

El Nimr / Tawfik v Araneda / Lobo

L. El NimrM. Tawfik
Winner
63
C. AranedaM. Lobo
15
RetiredCourt 801:11

Pre-match odds

Upset
El Nimr / Tawfik

32%

Avg Elo 1485

Araneda / Lobo

68%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 66

El Nimr / Tawfik won with a 32% chance — about 1 in 3.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Point by point

Scores read El Nimr / Tawfik first, Araneda / Lobo second.

77 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    4. 40–30BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold

Set 23–5

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 1–1

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  3. 1–2

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  8. 3–5

    El Nimr / Tawfik serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40BP
    4. 15–40BP
    Break
  9. 3–5

    Araneda / Lobo serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    —

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.