The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenNovember 6, 2026

Gonzalez / Miltos v Molina / Valdes

M. GonzalezS. Miltos
Winner
66
C. MolinaJ. Valdes
32
Court 800:54

Pre-match odds

Gonzalez / Miltos

84%

Avg Elo 1631

Molina / Valdes

16%

Avg Elo 1490

Elo gap 141

Gonzalez / Miltos delivered as 84% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Gonzalez / MiltosMolina / Valdes

60%
Points won
40%
72%
Points won on serve
55%
45%
Points won on return
28%
71%
1st-serve points won
53%
100%
2nd-serve points won
67%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
29%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
8
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

64%
Points won
36%
89%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
11%
88%
1st-serve points won
52%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
48%
Points won returning 1st serve
12%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
3
4
Service games
5

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
62%
Points won on serve
56%
44%
Points won on return
38%
61%
1st-serve points won
53%
100%
2nd-serve points won
100%
47%
Points won returning 1st serve
39%
0%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
67%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Gonzalez / Miltos first, Molina / Valdes second.

75 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–3

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–0
    6. 40–15
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  9. 6–3

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break

Set 26–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–ABP
    6. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    5. 40–15
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  7. 5–2

    Gonzalez / Miltos serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 15–40BP
    6. 30–40BP
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Molina / Valdes serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.