The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenNovember 6, 2026

Segura / Di Francesco v Navarro / Zelba

M. SeguraV. Di Francesco
Winner
66
E. NavarroM. Zelba
21
Court 1300:41

Pre-match odds

Segura / Di Francesco

42%

Avg Elo 1523

Navarro / Zelba

58%

Avg Elo 1550

Elo gap 27

Segura / Di Francesco won as slight underdogs (42%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Segura / Di FrancescoNavarro / Zelba

64%
Points won
36%
82%
Points won on serve
47%
53%
Points won on return
18%
81%
1st-serve points won
47%
100%
2nd-serve points won
44%
53%
Points won returning 1st serve
19%
56%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
56%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
4
7
Service games
8
Stats by set

Set 1

62%
Points won
38%
80%
Points won on serve
50%
50%
Points won on return
20%
76%
1st-serve points won
48%
100%
2nd-serve points won
60%
52%
Points won returning 1st serve
24%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
50%
Break points converted
0%
8
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
4

Set 2

66%
Points won
34%
86%
Points won on serve
43%
57%
Points won on return
14%
86%
1st-serve points won
46%
0%
2nd-serve points won
25%
54%
Points won returning 1st serve
14%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
60%
Break points converted
0%
9
Longest run of points
3
3
Service games
4

Point by point

Scores read Segura / Di Francesco first, Navarro / Zelba second.

68 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. A–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–15
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 30–40
    7. 40–40
    8. A–40BP
    9. 40–40
    10. A–40BP
    Break
  6. 5–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    Hold
  8. 6–2

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 26–1

Breaks 3–0

  1. 1–0

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 0–30
    5. 0–40
    6. 15–40
    7. 30–40
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  2. 2–0

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–30
    Hold
  3. 3–0

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    Break
  4. 4–0

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–30
    3. 30–40
    4. 40–40
    5. 40–A
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Segura / Di Francesco serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold
  7. 6–1

    Navarro / Zelba serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0BP
    4. 40–15BP
    Break

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.