The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenNovember 6, 2026

Navarro / Lebron v Araujo / Graca

F. NavarroJ. Lebron
Winner
66
P. AraujoP. Graca
24
Grand Stand 101:06

Pre-match odds

Navarro / Lebron

96%

Avg Elo 1871

Araujo / Graca

4%

Avg Elo 1589

Elo gap 282

Navarro / Lebron delivered as 96% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Navarro / LebronAraujo / Graca

59%
Points won
41%
74%
Points won on serve
57%
43%
Points won on return
26%
72%
1st-serve points won
58%
86%
2nd-serve points won
54%
42%
Points won returning 1st serve
28%
46%
Points won returning 2nd serve
14%
100%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
4
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

67%
Points won
33%
81%
Points won on serve
48%
52%
Points won on return
19%
80%
1st-serve points won
50%
100%
2nd-serve points won
40%
50%
Points won returning 1st serve
20%
60%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
11
Longest run of points
2
4
Service games
4

Set 2

53%
Points won
47%
69%
Points won on serve
63%
37%
Points won on return
31%
65%
1st-serve points won
64%
83%
2nd-serve points won
62%
36%
Points won returning 1st serve
35%
38%
Points won returning 2nd serve
17%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Navarro / Lebron first, Araujo / Graca second.

81 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–2

Breaks 2–0

  1. 0–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    4. 15–30
    5. 15–40
    6. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  6. 4–2

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  7. 5–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Break
  8. 6–2

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    Hold

Set 26–4

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  4. 3–1

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 40–15
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  6. 4–2

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  7. 4–3

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  8. 5–3

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    Hold
  9. 5–4

    Araujo / Graca serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    5. 30–40
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–A
    Hold
  10. 6–4

    Navarro / Lebron serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  11. 6–4

    Navarro / Lebron serving

      —

    The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.