The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenNovember 6, 2026

Cesar / Palma v Nolten / Van Betuw

J. CesarS. Palma
Winner
67
J. NoltenN. Van Betuw
15
Court 501:12

Pre-match odds

Cesar / Palma

37%

Avg Elo 1441

Nolten / Van Betuw

63%

Avg Elo 1487

Elo gap 47

Cesar / Palma won as slight underdogs (37%).

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Cesar / PalmaNolten / Van Betuw

59%
Points won
41%
73%
Points won on serve
54%
46%
Points won on return
27%
73%
1st-serve points won
55%
71%
2nd-serve points won
50%
45%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
29%
43%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
10
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

64%
Points won
36%
69%
Points won on serve
42%
58%
Points won on return
31%
73%
1st-serve points won
45%
50%
2nd-serve points won
25%
55%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
75%
Points won returning 2nd serve
50%
33%
Break points converted
0%
7
Longest run of points
4
4
Service games
3

Set 2

56%
Points won
44%
76%
Points won on serve
64%
36%
Points won on return
24%
73%
1st-serve points won
62%
100%
2nd-serve points won
75%
38%
Points won returning 1st serve
27%
25%
Points won returning 2nd serve
0%
100%
Break points converted
0%
5
Longest run of points
4
6
Service games
6

Point by point

Scores read Cesar / Palma first, Nolten / Van Betuw second.

94 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 16–1

Breaks 2–0

  1. 1–0

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  2. 2–0

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15BP
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–30BP
    8. 40–40
    9. A–40BP
    Break
  3. 3–0

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    Hold
  4. 3–1

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40BP
    8. 40–40
    9. 40–A
    10. 40–40
    Hold
  5. 4–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    4. 30–40BP
    5. 40–40
    6. A–40
    Hold
  6. 5–1

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  7. 6–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold

Set 27–5

Breaks 1–0

  1. 0–1

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–15
    4. 40–0
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 40–15
    5. 40–30
    6. 40–40
    7. A–40
    Hold
  5. 2–3

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 15–15
    4. 15–30
    5. 15–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    Hold
  8. 4–4

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  9. 4–5

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  10. 5–5

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 40–0
    4. 30–0
    Hold
  11. 6–5

    Nolten / Van Betuw serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15BP
    Break
  12. 7–5

    Cesar / Palma serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 0–0
    3. 15–0
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 40–30
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.