The Padel Brief

SemifinalMenNovember 6, 2026

Lindmeyer / Merten v Windahl / Vasquez

J. LindmeyerN. Merten
24
D. WindahlS. Vasquez
Winner
66
Court 600:56

Pre-match odds

Lindmeyer / Merten

37%

Avg Elo 1503

Windahl / Vasquez

63%

Avg Elo 1547

Elo gap 45

Windahl / Vasquez delivered as 63% favourites.

How the odds work

Each pair's strength is the average of its two players' Elo ratings. A 100-point gap makes the stronger pair a 76% favourite; 200 points, 91%. The model is calibrated on 7,500+ pro matches: when it says 70%, the favourite wins about 70% of the time.

These are the odds going into the match day, on the Elo each player carried in, so the result does not leak into them.

Elo ratings: Padel API

Match stats

Lindmeyer / MertenWindahl / Vasquez

41%
Points won
59%
51%
Points won on serve
71%
29%
Points won on return
49%
53%
1st-serve points won
72%
40%
2nd-serve points won
60%
28%
Points won returning 1st serve
47%
40%
Points won returning 2nd serve
60%
100%
Break points converted
44%
5
Longest run of points
6
9
Service games
9
Stats by set

Set 1

38%
Points won
62%
48%
Points won on serve
76%
24%
Points won on return
52%
50%
1st-serve points won
79%
33%
2nd-serve points won
50%
21%
Points won returning 1st serve
50%
50%
Points won returning 2nd serve
67%
0%
Break points converted
50%
3
Longest run of points
6
4
Service games
4

Set 2

44%
Points won
56%
53%
Points won on serve
67%
33%
Points won on return
47%
56%
1st-serve points won
67%
43%
2nd-serve points won
67%
33%
Points won returning 1st serve
44%
33%
Points won returning 2nd serve
57%
100%
Break points converted
40%
5
Longest run of points
5
5
Service games
5

Point by point

Scores read Lindmeyer / Merten first, Windahl / Vasquez second.

82 points shown — the point that wins each game is never published.

Set 12–6

Breaks 0–2

  1. 0–1

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–0
    4. 30–15
    5. 30–30
    6. 40–30
    7. 40–40
    8. 40–ABP
    Break
  2. 0–2

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40
    Hold
  3. 1–2

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–30
    3. 30–30
    4. 40–30
    5. 40–40
    6. 40–ABP
    7. 40–40
    Hold
  4. 1–3

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold
  5. 1–4

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–40BP
    Break
  6. 1–5

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold
  7. 2–5

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  8. 2–6

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    4. 15–40
    Hold

Set 24–6

Breaks 1–2

  1. 1–0

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 40–15
    Hold
  2. 1–1

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 0–40
    Hold
  3. 2–1

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 40–15
    Hold
  4. 2–2

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  5. 3–2

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40BP
    6. 40–40
    7. 40–ABP
    8. 40–40
    Hold
  6. 3–3

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 15–15
    3. 15–30
    Hold
  7. 3–4

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 15–15
    3. 30–15
    4. 15–15
    5. 30–15
    6. 30–30
    7. 30–40BP
    Break
  8. 4–4

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 0–15
    2. 0–30
    3. 15–30
    4. 30–30
    5. 40–30BP
    Break
  9. 4–5

    Lindmeyer / Merten serving

    1. 15–15
    2. 30–15
    3. 30–30
    4. 30–40BP
    Break
  10. 4–6

    Windahl / Vasquez serving

    1. 15–0
    2. 30–0
    3. 30–15
    4. 30–30
    5. 30–40
    Hold

The point that wins a game is never published by the source feed, so the winner of each game is derived from the next game's score. Where the feed had a gap, no winner is claimed.